Signs of Recovery

How can you tell whether the stimulus is working?

I think that the real barometer of regaining strength in the economy is found in the least expected places. The fast food restaurants.

Spending money in the fast food places right now are the craftsmen of the building industry. When money is tight and there are few jobs, the cheapest fast food places are the hangout for the tile men and the carpenters. As money gets more secure, these folks are often out of towners and they start frequenting the more upscale places. This process is just starting to take place. Taco Bell is gradually giving away to more upscale tacquerias. The average tab at one of these places is about 7 dollars and change. The average tab at Taco Bell is just over 5. Out of towners in the construction trades are starting to eat their lunches at Panda Express. Its an 8 dollar plus tab.

Unlike most of the wealthy cities in California, Merced has no labor pool waiting to do jobs in groups. The day laborers are contacted by word of mouth. "Do you know someone that can help me with some dry wall?" There are usually three or four people that you can contact through this word of mouth connection.

So while the prices on housing dropped in half over the last couple of years, there are some people that are building equity in their homes through renovation.

Have a great day!

Pat